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Old 06-24-2005, 10:31 PM
sharp63 sharp63 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 40
Default Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells

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Are you sure you were a statistics major? It is not guaranteed to make it up at some point, it will only regress to the mean. Your odds of flopping a set won't magically become 2-7.5 rather than 1-7.5 because you've gone 15 pocket pairs without hitting. You're just as likely to have a hot streak as a cold streak, but they are completely independant. You are just as likely to hit normally for a run and then run cold as you are to run hot.

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You're obviously not understanding what I meant. And for the record I was a math minor, not a stats major. Quite frankly, you guys are missing the basic understanding of mathmatical probability. If may take 50 hands or 500,000,000 hands, but you will end up at the statistical probability in the long run (no matter how far away that is). I will gladly set up a computer simulation 250k hands of so and I'd bet on the frequency of a flopped set or quads would be 10-12%.

I obviously wasn't expecting the improbability to fix itself over 200 hands...I don't think I ever implied that. I figured I would eventually hit a set or two and I did. However, I do think 40-50 hands is fair enough to raise an eyebrow to. Maybe I'm wrong in that thinking though...hence the original purpose of this post.
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