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Old 11-21-2005, 09:23 PM
xLukex xLukex is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 572
Default Re: J8s from the button

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I alternate between betting and checking (with the hope of check-raising if the situation is right) in this spot, with much depending upon how the table is behaving as a whole.

If I had to choose the scenario I would like to occur, it would be: Hero checks, UTG bets, 3 calls, Hero check-raises, 4 calls. Assuming you see a showdown, your pot equity is ~35%, yet you're putting in only 20% in the scenario I just mentioned, and you trapped the field for an extra bet. So, what I like to do is check and see what materializes. If, after a bet from behind me, I think I can get in with greater than 35% equity, I will check-raise. If not, I call if the pot odds are correct.

However, if the table is such that it will often be checked through or it will be bet without callers, then I will simply bet in order to have some fold equity and also to perhaps disguise my hand from those who think I'm representing a pair of Kings or Jacks and are drawing to a lower flush.

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If hero has 35% of the pot equity in this hand, anyone with an ace automatically has more than 35%. Does that make sense? Hero cannot be the favorite to win the hand with a flush draw if someone has a pair of aces. 65% of the time he will not hit a flush and he will have bet for nothing.

Also, if you bet on the flop and get 3 callers, what is your plan for the turn? Bet again into a group of hands that beat you?

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Hero is not the favorite to win. I am estimating he will hit his flush and win 35% of the time.

If Hero puts in less than 35% of the money on this betting round (or, for that matter, if he puts in less than 35% of the money for the rest of the hand from this point forward), then the betting has been +EV for Hero.

The analysis on the turn would be the same, but taking into account that Hero's equity will be less since he is now drawing to only one card.

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Yeah, I completely misinterpreted pot equity I think.

I was saying hero is not the favorite, so he must not have pot equity, which is obviously wrong.

In my defense, I play shorthanded. So all I do is bet and check-raise, apparently.
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