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Old 12-19-2005, 01:39 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 95
Default Re: Turn semi-bluff raise

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I like this with position, for a few reasons..

1) This is the biggest sign of strength in an agro game, just calling a flop raise then coming back on the turn. Even bad players still fold here often.



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I think you are overestimating how often people fold here, but I agree that you do probably have some fold equity.

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2) We look like a psycho draw raiser, which is only good for the meta game.



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Yes, it is good for meta game if the opponent doesn't call down too much already, which is only a relatively small sample of the typical 10/20 player. (I'm extrapolating from the same limit at other sites that I play more frequently.) I definitely want to be applying pressure with my draws in future hands depending on my read, but I think most early encounters end up going to showdown -- if for no other reason than the player (either consciously or subconsciously) wants to know what you are raising in that spot. I don't think the metagame benefit is enough to compensate for the reduced (though nonzero) fold equity.

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3) This card is very innocuios (is that how the words spelt?), and he'll be crapping himself that we're raising this.

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I seriously doubt this. Only good players are thinking at this level. Most players are suspicious that you are making a move because the board is not scary. I don't claim to be a particularly good player, but there's no way if I am villain that I am thinking what you suggest about an unknown in this spot. (BTW, I think it's spelled 'innocuous' but I could be wrong.) If you have J3 and the betting sequence goes as above, are you worried more about a Q43-8 board or a K93-A board?

I don't think raising the turn is awful here, but I think waiting for a better spot will (1) increase your EV on this hand in question and (2) increase (or at least not decrease) your future folding equity in later hands.
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