I think that your odds obviously decrease but not as drastically as you imply.

You're not actually busting out the extra 500 players yourself, so I don't think you can use a simple linear multiplier (2x) to determine your odds. If that were true, it would take twice as long to complete a tournament when the field is doubled, and I know that isn't the case.

There are also other variables such as the skill and experience of the additional 500 players that will play a more important factor in determining the difficulty to money. Did they all buy-in directly (much tougher field if at $100+9) or did they qualify through satellites (the $200+15 weeklys could be softer even with the higher buy-in).

I'm not one of MTT's math guys, so I could be wrong. This might even be better posted in the Probability board.

John