[MHarris]

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Since we made it to the river I think we have to check-fold here. Your average player at 3/6 is on the passive side, and he's not betting A-hi here very often at all. Indeed, there are virtually no missed draws so we're hoping he has specifically a QJ or KJ-type hand... Cartman did some good work on A-hi OOP on the river vs passive players and found that it was quite incorrect to call with A-hi because they checked behind worse hands far too often.


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This was what I was most concerned with. The decision I made was based on some pretty general assumptions I tend to make regarding unknowns: 1) That they're loose and will peel with all sorts of crap (in this case, KJ, QJ, 98, 87, maybe A7/A5), especially on pretty raggedy boards, and 2) That they're not entirely passive, and that there's a reasonable chance they can be induced to bluff. I'm not sure that these assumptions are enough to play the river this way, especially given the action of the hand. I should probably pay less attention to the second assumption, at least at 3/6, since it's likely to cause me more trouble than it's worth.

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keep in mind the risk of domination is pretty strong here as any Ax hand that has paired its kicker will have called.(and these guys love their Ax)


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And this.....well, I can't pretend that I gave this enough consideration when I bet the turn.

Thanks man.