[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
mean really, you rhink this was a steal for the NATS? i mean WOW!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a bad deal for both teams. The Rangers lose more.

[ QUOTE ]
soriano has stolen bases at a 80% clip throughout his career. the break even point is 78% i think. so yeah, it adds some value.


[/ QUOTE ]

BP quotes 75%, but then when I do the math for run EV, it turns out to be closer to 70%, maybe even less. Steals are all about situations though, and I don't want to go into that. Suffice it to say, that statheads don't give enough credit to the stolen base.


[ QUOTE ]
funny thing is, i have provided stats to prove it.


[/ QUOTE ]
Vince Lombardi said something about stats. I know he's an oldtimer, but he was goot.

You have provided stats to prove they are about equal, with Soriano having a slight edge. But those stats have undervalued Soriano's basestealing speed, given him no credit at all for his baserunning speed, and hardly accounted for K's and batting average. Those are all areas where Soriano has a big advantage.

[ QUOTE ]
when i do evaluations like that, i only go back 3 years as a norm. should i go back 4 and count 4 seasons ago as 1/2 weight? at best its going to mean they are worth the same equally (offense) going forward.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is sample size. Even over the course of a career, there will be significant statistical variance. What I would do is figure out what player they are, and when they became that player. Soriano is clearly no worse now than he was in 2002. We are just dealing with statistical variance.

Going forward, niether player should get much better or much worse. They are both in the peak of thier career, and will be for at least two more years.