[buffett]

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if you follow his formula blindly, you must be very diversified as he recommends (ironic considering his last book) to avoid having too much risk from some of the dogs that will end up in your screen.

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This is absolutely correct. And as Joel says, when he wrote YCBASMG, he intended it to be a layman's book. He now realizes that it was far too complex for the layman and the only people who really read it and profit from it are hedge fund managers. So to me, the difference in advice regarding diversification is not ironic, because this new book is another attempt at reaching the masses.

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he's trying to create a formula for people who don't want to do the real work of understanding the businesses behind the stocks....I...don't feel this approach is optimal. I don't doubt it beats the market however.

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Exactly right again, and another point supporting that this new book is for the general populace and YCBASMG was more for professionals.

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The question is if he popularizes it, will the future returns be as good with thousands of investors chasing the same stocks?

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Right again (you're on a roll today [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). I agree with Mr. Greenblatt when he says that he is completely confident that this book will not change the way the vast majority of money is invested (i.e., by big institutions that generally value things correctly but occasionally over-react due to fear and greed). In other words, Mr. Market (the paranoid schizophrenic alcoholic we all know and love) will be the same guy he is today for many decades to come.