Re: 20/40 top set
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I think that the chances of two pair checking behind are close to zero.
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Agree. I think most people can't resist the temptation to try and value bet two pair here when hero shows weakness on the river. After calling the huge bet on the turn, it is unlikely that villian has anything less then two pair, maybe tptk, but unlikely because hero has qq. Another thing to consider is wether villian would be playing anything that would make two pair? on this board maybe QJ but again that's unlikly, so villian probably has a set considering he called the pfr.
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I also think the chances of two pair mucking to an allin are pretty low.
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Disagree. I think two small pairs are easy to get rid of when big agression is shown in ep on all streets. Maybe not such an easy decision since hero has a laggy image, but not an easy call anyway.
All in all, I think its most likely villian has a set, in which case it doesn't really matter what you do, the money's going in. I really don't think he'd have anything less then two pair at all, in which case it would be better to check and let him bet, rather then go all in and risk him folding.
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