[AaronBrown]

I don't think this question falls into that level of incredibility. Nut hands get outdrawn pretty frequently. Five is a row is hard luck, but it happens more often than, say, getting a straight flush in hold'em. If someone wrote in describing a hand with a straight flush, I don't think anyone would doubt him.

Granted, there are people who write in claiming to have flopped four royal flushes in four different suits in a row. Then you have to apply some Bayesian reasoning beginning with "5% of posters are dishonest or confused," and come to the conclusion that the posterior probability that the post is accurate is quite low.

But in this case, Bayes doesn't rule out belief. You can also take into account that this is neither a first post, nor one from someone known for wacky claims. Why would someone post sensibly 100 times, and then decide to switch gears?

The other trouble with this attitude is if you dismiss all unlikely events, you can miss opportunities to learn. Sometimes things are not as unlikely as the seem at first. Other times there is another factor at work, which you would never discover unless you investigate dubious claims.

If someone posts a made-up event, or one they thought they observed only because they were drunk and are stupid, no harm is done. I don't mind computing the probability for them. But posts like this one are in another category, good food for thought.