Re: 2-7 noob hand #1
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How do you calculate the odds you need to draw to make your hand? Can you assume a certain percentage of discards are going to be bricks and a certain percentage may have been paired cards for my opponents that would improve my hand?
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There's more than one way to do it. You should probably not, however, be trying to figure out the probability that discards could have helped or hurt you--- others' discards are morally equivalent to cards in the deck. From your perspective, they're all unknowns.
The simplest way, and least accurate, is to just work with the cards you've seen. In this hand you've seen 8 cards, so there are 47 remaining. So 8 outs is 39:8 odds, or 4.9:1.
To improve the estimate you need to work out what the other players are likely to have. You can be pretty certain that they have 87s or better. This means the remaining "unknowns" is only 37 cards, but we don't know how many of our outs are available. It could be pretty few (if they discarded pairs and both hold 3s and 6s, or hold a better 7) or completely live (also unlikely.) My current rule of thumb is to say that 3 of your outs are dead vs. two pat opponents. (0.75 outs/card/hand) So 32:5 odds = 6.4:1.
Drawing to a wheel, you have some implied odds to make up the slack. So 5:1 pot odds is probably close.
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