[Mempho]

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One thing left out of your analysis is that the raising got the blinds out of the pot. So fewer competitors and thus a diminished chance that a "lucky" flop will hit an inferior hand. And, in general, players in a game where they suspect the pot will be raised are less likely to limp in from early positions, also cutting down on the luck factor. The fewer players involved, the less chance a high quality pre-flop hand will be drawn out on.

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I certainly don't disagree...the blinds are an X factor in the equation but its not quite as simple as it may first seem. Noone doubts that raising gives you a better chance of winning and many times creates some dead money in the pot from the blinds or from the occasional extra poster. These are things that argue in favor of raising, but there is another issue that lots of preflop raising creates:

Let's look at a hypothetical deal in an online game. Let's pretend that you're a very technologically intelligent cheat [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] and that, as a result, all of the cards on your screen are dealt face up. You are a mastermind and have virtually no chance of getting caught and therefore you are going to be able to play in a way that perfectly coincides with the fundamental theory of poker. You are in MP3 in this situation...here is what you see...

SB Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (He correctly folds immediately)
UTG+1A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (He is passive preflop and limps)
UTG+29 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Correctly folds)
MP1 Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (Correctly folds)
MP2 A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Correctly folds)
Hero A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Well, since we're cheating here we should label ourselves villain [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img], but now we've got to decide what to do. We look behind us and see:

CO 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (he'll call a bet but not cold call)
Button K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (hmmm, he would play that unraised from the button)


And then the blinds...SB is folding no matter what and the BB is calling no matter what.

So...do you want to fold, call, or raise now that we've seen the stone cold truth? We have the best hand, so we're not going to fold. Let's see how this works. If we raise, we are going to drive out button and the cutoff, the SB has already checked the fold box and the big blind is calling anyway.

So first we look at what a raise accomplishes. We raise and it gets folded to the BB, who calls, then UTG+1 calls. So, its 3 to the flop for 2 bets a piece and 6.5 SB are pulled to the middle.

What is our equity in this situation?

Our hero wins 56.21% against these 2 opponents.


So, we have 56.21% of a 6.5SB pot or a 3.65 SB slice...less the 2 bets of our own and we have a positive expectation of 1.65 SB.


Now, if we don't raise, the button and the cutoff will come in...we will have 5 people to the flop for 5.5 SB, thus:

UTG+1 22.19%
Hero 41.28%
CO 19.22%
BT 4.79%
BB 12.51%

So you have a 41.28% slice of 5.5SB, or a 2.27 SB piece. If you subtract your original bet, you have a positive expectation of 1.27SB.

So your profit from raising is only an additional 0.38SB in this situation because one of the byproduct of raising is to discourage dominated hands from making calls in position.

In this particular scenario, you would probably be better off not raising because you have some implied customers if you hit your hand...meaning that the pots you do win (which will be fewer) should be larger due to the implied payoff from not raising...specifically when one of our limpers we let in flops top or middle pair.