[Kenshin]

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hi vk
there were 8 BB in the pot when i called. the implied odds made it 12 BB. all my outs were very clean. i do agree though that it was razor thin and required a very good read. i had to know that on the river the UTG would betout and that the MP would call and both would call my subsequent raise in the event i hit my 6 out. i knew this.

basically, i guess my question is ' can we take our reads this far, into the implied action?'. i did need the river action to be perfect. so my question is, 'can we be so sure about how clean our outs are and the implied action? this is what i'm not sure about.

and then, i might as well say it now, if we can't be so sure about our read, can i then be not so sure that i'm not in the lead. i did have the over-pair. does my read 'wash-out'; in other words, if i'm wrong about the implied action, should i attach a measure of doubt to my read that i'm not in the lead until i hit the 6 out. also, given all these factors, was the river raise correct? i needed to raise the river to make the turn call correct. i just didn't know. i called like a fish rather than making a play or folding because it was not clear to me at that time, and i didn't want to muck a hand that i couldn't determine was sub-optimal.

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Hi Elysium,
I believe you can extrapolate your implied odds from your reads in this specific situation. Obviously reads and odds have a very tenuous correlation; however, against truly ABC players, you can indentify hands with sufficient accurracy to predict future action. Thus, I consider both your flop and turn plays correct. You made a lucky and, more importantly, good play. Just remember that long shots result in dramatically increased variance

Kenshin