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you need to take into account all possible hands, and weigh their liklihood.

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AA (6), KK (6), AQ (8), QQ (1), KQ (8), QJ (6), QT (6), TT (3), AT (12). Total hands that will win = 56

AK (16), KJ (12) = 28

Plus, how often does a TAG 3 bet against the preflop raiser and flop raiser, while OOP, with AK unimproved (gutshot plus two overs = 7 outs assuming aces are tainted for reverse domination risk).

Not often. I just dont think AK is a realistic range. KJ I might grant you, but not AK. And even KJ, I dont see many TAGs 3 betting this hand preflop in a protected pot.

The flop play just screams made hand, and there are very few made hands that will fold for 1 bet on the river in this pot given the two busted draws after 4th street.