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Old 12-21-2005, 12:11 PM
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Default Re: Optimal Blackjack strategy ??

Ok, I'll try to dig up some data. It wasn't real easy, and I'm no math whiz. I think what I tested for was the number of times that the dealer's hole card was 10 when he had A or 10 showing. The number of hands was in the 600 to 700 range. The number of times that he had a A up and 10 up was just about right. But the number of times that 10 turned into 20 (with only 1 addl card) and A turned into BJ was way off. I remember I had to search a while on the web to get the correct math for the std deviation calculation, but I did. In the end the number of times the dealer hole card was 10 (when A or 10 was showing) was well over 2 std deviations away from EV. I then repeated the test at another site using a different interface and found the same anomaly. The log files were sent to me in pdf format, so the data analysis was fairly tedious, but I double and triple checked my work. I will try to dig up one of the pdf files if I can find it and post it.

I then found a blackjack program that I thought was fair based on the ups and downs of steady play and the reputation of the sprotsbook that I linked from. But after a while, there was a problem with connecting to the program for about 10 minutes or so. After I re-connected, I had a net loss of 60 bets in the next hour or so (approx 700 hands). I should expect to lose about 6. I never got the log files from this site, and I don't know how unusual it is to lose 60 bets out of 700, but I am absolutely convinced that I was not playing against the same program as before the connection issues.

I'm not saying that there are no fair blackjack programs out there. There probably are. But there are also cheating programs, and no way for the player to be sure. There is very little in the way of accountability or recourse out there. I even think that many site operators may not even know - or care - if the program is dealing fairly. They just know that it's a gravy train. The software providers know what the programs are doing, but they are obviously going to keep it to themselves. All the money that everyone gets is all based off a percentage of what the players bet. If the players don't lose a big enough percentage of what they bet, then there is not enough $$ to satisfy all the greed. That's what I believe and I think I have strong reason to believe it.

And btw, I have also linked to a black jack program at a poker site and played casually for a while to pass the time while folding hand after hand. I did this quite regularly and had losing sessions EVERY TIME before I wised up. I wanted to believe that the program was fair and that playing basic strategy perfectly with no bet variation would not lose me much money. But it just isn't true. I think the program may actually be rigged to reward bad play in certain ways (e.g. insurance). I don't know, but I do know that there are a lot of cheating programs out there. There is no doubt in my mind, and I'm open minded, intelligent, generally skeptical about things like this, and not easily convinced. The advice is sound: STAY AWAY FROM ONLINE BLACKJACK!
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