[elindauer]

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I think there is plenty reason to check the turn. I can't imagine this guy putting in 3 bets on the flop and folding the turn. A checkraise is more likely than a fold by a good margin.

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That may be true, but it doesn't prove that checking is the play. The reason is that getting a fold is SO valuable.

Let's say he is going to call down. Betting is .6BB worse than checking.

Let's say he is going to check-raise the turn, bet / call the river. Now checking is 1.2 BB better than betting.

But what if he is going to fold the turn, and our check makes him call the river? Even if we don't actually make the failed river bluff (which would of course make the EV change even worse), checking is a 3 BB mistake. If you're going to bluff the river when he checks to you again and get called, now it's a 3.8 BB mistake to check the turn. Oops!


So, let's say he is going to fold 25% of the time, call 25%, and raise 50%. Now your check vs bet decision makes no difference, and you can just think about metagame considerations. Make it a little more likely that he'll fold though, or a little less likely that he'll check-raise, or add in your failed bluffs on the river when a turn bluff would have succeeded, and betting is clearly best.

-Eric