View Single Post
  #24  
Old 12-14-2005, 02:47 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: HU against a \"PT\'er\"

[ QUOTE ]
Guys - you should normally not be using "odds to the see the river" when deciding whether or not to see the turn.

If you're going to use the odds you need to see the river (instead of just seeing the next card) then you need to account for the bets that will go in on the turn. There are 7.5 small bets in the pot on the flop; Hero will be forced to call 1 SB on the flop and almost certainly 2 SBs on the turn (and Villain will contribute 3 SBs on these streets), meaning he's effectively getting 10.5:1.5 or ~7:1. However, since a good portion of his outs consist of backdoor draws, and he will not likely continue on the turn unless one of his "continuation outs" falls, this offers and even stronger argument to disregard the "see the river odds."

You'll be much better off in the vast majority of circumstances if you just look at the odds immediately offered when deciding whether or not to peel off a card (and considering implied odds as you grow more experienced). As you grow even more comfortable and experienced, you can start projecting beyond one street; until then, do yourselves a favor and stick to a street-by-street analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this explanation helps me the best. I was evaluating pot odds incorrectly by looking at the "turn" portion of a pot odds chart to justify the call with this small number of outs in this hand. So, basically, I'm better off just looing at the "river" portion of a pot odds chart to make a correct judgement. Luckily, I had only made this mistake a few times during actual play.
Reply With Quote