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Old 11-29-2005, 01:23 PM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 116
Default Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care

I think you have a speculative hand that you were hoping to flop something big and trap UTG and UTG+1, given that you had position on them and that they played in such a way that they would pay off big. I don't think you would want to try to bluff these guys off a pot, because they are a bit unpredictable (UTG) or a bit of a calling station (UTG+1).

So 22-99, suited connectors, probably two Broadways that have some potential is your range. Something that you might not normally call for a raise in this position.

You like the flop, and you are not trying to take down the pot right now, as your bet is not that strong. However, your bet does give incorrect odds for someone to call with the flush draw. So I don't think you are working on the flush draw (or else you are giving yourself a mathematically incorrect bet if someone calls you).

I also don't think you have top pair (or you would have bet stronger). I don't think you have two pair, since the board isn't really conducive to that. No straight or straight draw either. So the only thing I can come up with is a set.

The turn doesn't change my mind. The river pairs the 3, which makes me think you have a set of 5s. Possibly the quad 3s.

As for UTG, he will call your river push with any flush or straight. He may fold top pair, as the 3 pairing on the board might scare him a bit. Then again, he might put you on a bluff and call.

His calls are strange and seem to be either trapping or chasing. One hand that makes sense is the nut flush, which he is obviously slowplaying. A lower flush does not make sense, because he would want to raise the flop in order to protect against someone drawing out with the A of diamonds.

A straight is possible, but even stranger (he would have raised UTG with 46o). So I'm guessing the nut flush if he calls you, and a draw that he was chasing (A of diamonds and another card) if he folds.
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