[Buzz]

Spellman - This is the kind of starting hand that often gets me knocked out of a tournament too. You obviously have a fine starting hand. It's good against many opponents, and it's also good one-on-one.

If the blinds (and everyone else) will just roll over for you, everything will be hunky dory. Have you ever seen both of these particular blind posters fold to a pre-flop raise? Or is it more likely one or both of them play back at you? (I don't know the answer, because I don't know these particular opponents, but I think that's the key).

One-on-one, I think A2TQd is about a 3 to 2 (59.1%) favorite against a random hand, and about 11 to 9 (55.7%) against AXYZ (a hand with one ace plus three random cards).

One-on-two, I think A2TQd is about 45.6% against two random hands and about 42.6% against two random hands, one of which has an ace.

Thus you're almost surely the pre-flop favorite.

Trouble is, if you miss, and if you're pot committed, you're going to be out of the tournament. And if you have a couple of opponents calling your pre-flop raise, although you have a better chance than either opponent, you're not a favorite against both of them.

So I think it goes back to whether or not the blinds are likely to concede to you. If you think there's a very good chance they will fold to a pre-flop raise, you don't need a hand quite as good as the one you have to raise. But if you think there's a much better chance they won't both concede, by raising you're more or less rolling the dice where 21 combos win for you but 15 combos lose. Thinking in terms of two dice, you lose if you roll any five six, or seven and win if you roll anything else.

You're favored to get away with that roll once, but if you have to roll twice in a row, I think the dice will do you wrong more often than they'll do you right.

In terms of this particular starting hand, you're favored to survive if you pot commit once, but favored to get knocked out if you pot commit twice.

So when you're in a tournament, and in danger of getting knocked out, even though you have the odds almost three to two in your favor, you shouldn't much want to bet all your marbles very often, because if you do it just twice, you're favored to get knocked off - and that's even truer if you have to do it more than twice. Of course you're going to have to go all-in at some point, and probably more than once - but you really should want to minimize the number of times you get yourself pot committed and end up going all-in. (It's rather like brer fox getting stuck in the tar).

What to do does not seem an easy decision to me. On the one hand, your cards play better against more opponents. Thus if you want the maximum bang for your buck, you want as many opponents as possible. But in a tournament, although you figure to win more chips with more opponents, as the number of opponents increases, so do your chances of getting knocked out. Indeed, with just two opponents, although you're the favorite against either opponent, you're not favored to beat both of them.

In a ring game, or for an isolated bet, you'd like to bet on this starting hand. But you're not dealing with an isolated bet here - your tournament life is at risk.

You don't have quite enough chips to coast to the final table, making it pretty hard, and probably incorrect, not to see the flop with this hand. Then since you get a favorable flop, it's pretty hard (and probably incorrect) not to continue. And at this stage of the tournament, I think you should generally like to come in with a raise. However, I'm not sure you want to commit all your marbles here if you don't have to commit. Thus unless there's an excellent chance of stealing the blinds from these particular blind posters, I'm not sure of the wisdom of the pre-flop and (especially) post-flop raises.

After the turn, assuming your opponent has a trey, there are more cards you don't like for the river than you do like, but even without the raises, you're getting nice odds to call a turn bet. It would be a very tough decision here without the raises. With the raises, your decision on the turn actually seems easier - because I think you're pot committed at this point.

Kind of an enigma. Happens to me in a tournament sometimes too - and usually with a nice starting hand very much like yours here. Then all the long drive home, I'm wondering if there was a way I could have avoided getting knocked out.

On balance, unless you have an excellent chance of stealing the blinds, I think you do better by not raising before the flop. (After the flop there's hardly any chance of stealing the pot with a raise. With a larger stack you might get a free card on the turn - but by raising with your particular sized stack, you're more likely to get forced all-in).

You basically start the hand with nine small bets, and if you just call the first three bets, you'll still have over half the chips you started the hand with. Losing with this starting hand would not be good, but it seems better than risking losing the tournament.

Does seems a shame, in a way, not to blast away (as you did) with this very good starting hand and a nice flop fit. There's a lesson here for me too.

Just my opinion.

Buzz