I fold this the majority of the time against those stats. But if the table was tightening up, and he's able to loosen up, then yeah. Maybe he's reacting to the table getting shorter.

I think I bet the turn, and if called check behind the river. The only reasonable semibluffing hands he could c/r the turn with is something like spades (QJs, TJs, 9Js, etc.), or an underpair. So if he does pull the trigger on the turn, I'm leaning towards folding but I think it's close.