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I've got an ATI 9800 Pro 128 meg card and an Athlon XP 3000, and I'm thinking that's getting on the low end of things for top-end games. And from what I remember of Civ 2, it was rough on good computers at the time. I've seen repeated reviews mentioning AOE 3 slowing down, too.
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FWIW my friends/aoe clan mates are saying good things about age of empires III at this point. I haven't bought it yet personally and didn't like the demo but it's sounding pretty good. The gamerankings rating is pretty decent as well:
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I don't know how quickly it will run on your system though. I assume probably ok until you break the ~100 unit mark.