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Old 07-13-2005, 01:53 PM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Default Re: Ever give credit for quads (when holding second nuts)?

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On the river, i can use this logic against you; in fact, this is why overbets work so well in my opinion. People think "well i played it so passively, he might be trying to push me off of my hand."

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I can use this logic against you. If people think there is no way you will push into a small pot with anything worse than an ace, then I can always push here and get you to laydown anything short of quad nines. All we're arguing about is levels of thinking. I am saying that most opponents here are on the first level of thinking: "I want him to fold, so I'll bet a lot." You are saying that they are on the second level of thinking: "I know that a big bet looks like a bluff, so I will make it with a good hand and hope to get a call." Of course that's possible. The question is, how likely is that? Not only how likely is it that villain would push with an ace or a nine, which I agree might be likely, but how often will he also push with something which is NOT an ace or a nine? I think for many people in this situation it is not unlikely.

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Basically I see this as calling ~40 bucks to split ~6 dollar pot, and 3 of those 6 dollars are yours and 3 are his.

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All of the money is in the pot. None of it is yours or his.

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So you're calling 40 bucks to win like fifty cents (i can't remember the action p/f). Then, the times that Villian does have a 9, you'll lose 40 bucks.

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So are you saying that you would fold preflop, or that you would fold on the turn? (hint:I think either of those is extremely way too weak)

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Why would Villian bluff this much to win a 6 dollar pot? I just don't see it; I see this as a split or losing situation, and I have so little in the pot that I'd just fold. Am i missing something here?

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Well, if he will win $6 by bluffing for $40 he only needs to get you to fold <90% of the time. If you're folding an ace here, you easily fold something like 95-98% of the time. Sounds like a +EV play to me.
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