Re: Picking off continuation bets
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Ridiculously standard.
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I don't get it. Please explain. (I'm only talking about postflop)
There's two possibilities; we're ahead a draw or a bluff, or we're behind a better hand.
If we're ahead of a draw and we just called the flop, then we must think that the opponent's going to bluff again on the turn. If not, then we should raise the flop and hope he calls. But then we bet the turn, which forces the draw to fold. That's bad.
If we're behind something like a set or 2 pair, then we're drawing very thin and have almost no equity. Opening the betting on the turn is only asking for trouble. Are we folding to a min-raise? Why did we put ourselves in this situation in the first place where we have to think about calling a turn min-raise from an opponent who has position on us and is thinking?
It seems like this line (calling the flop, leading the turn) maximizes our losses when we are behind, and minimizes our gains when we are ahead.
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