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Old 12-16-2005, 11:56 AM
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Default Re: Good time for turn sexy?

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Checking is awful FPS.

You need to bet here 100% of the time. If he makes it 3, then you can call and trap him for the river.

With the check you might occassionally get a bet out of a PP that you normally wouldnt but with betting you will get action from someone going for their flush or unlikely straight draw and then again if they hit on the river. Plus anyone with a PP is likely calling this down all the way regardless of your betting.

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Anyone with a PP that isn't counterfeited would have most likely raised PF seeing as AA-KK & TT-JJ are the only ones any good anymore. A counterfeited PP likely isn't calling a turn bet. A turn check will pull bets in from those likely drawing dead. Plus, and this is the reason I like it the most, it balances out the times I take shots at paired boards like these OOP with nothing.

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Oh my God, the whole time Ive been posting on this thread I didnt realize there were two 9's on the board, I thought the board was QQ9x, not QQ99. This actually changes my analysis a lot. My whole analysis was based on the fact that the opponent has several hands that will call your checkraise so you already have your market, since he is likely to bet one of these draws.

With two 99's up there, this is no longer true. I would now play your hand in such a way that keeps JT and two hearts from folding. If you think those hands would fold if you bet the turn, then check, and let him check behind and hope he hits. If you do check the turn and he bets, you are actually now better off calling and donking the river becuz you dont want to checkraise becuz you dont want him to fold these hand, you want him to hit his draw on the river. If you think he will call your turn bet anyways with a draw, then you should bet here every time. Since the board is QQ99 instead of QQ9x, I think your better off just betting in case your opponent is dumb enough to still call with JT or two hearts, we know he'll call if he has a nine. Basically once the board double pairs your main objective now is to keep hands that are drawing close to dead from folding, and checkraising the turn actually induces these hands to fold which is -EV for your holding, I hope you read this and understand the big difference in strategy between what you should do on a QQ9x board and on a QQ99 board.
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