[hansarnic]

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Note: If you *then* go on to bet this flop, folding PF is fine.

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Heh [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I can see I have a hard job on my hands to defend my flop bet as just 'not great', rather than awful. I'll have one last go at it now & then give up & concede defeat.

First, let’s look at what happens when I check.

3 times in 4 I miss my draw. Now if there’s any reasonable bet (i.e. 200ish) I should really fold as I probably won’t get paid enough to make the call. 1 time in 4 I hit my hand, which is especially nice if it’s the str8, but what value do I make on average if it’s the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? I might make a big score but it’s definitely far from automatic as no-one indicated any strength on a drawy board on the flop.

These players shouldn’t be idiots (well they actually were in this case, but I wasn’t to know that) they aren’t just going to hand over their stack with no real hand, 6 opponents and a flush on board.

So when I check I think I win a medium-sized pot 1 time in 4 (possibly a little more for the times it gets checked round again), sometimes I’m lucky and win a big pot and 3 times in 4 I fold with most of my stack intact.

When I bet I think I take the pot down uncontested some of the time (1 time in 3, maybe a bit more I would estimate). Some of the time I get called and some of the time (and how often seems to be the contentious point) I get re-raised.

When I get called and make my hand on the turn I win a bigger pot. When I miss my draw, my chances of a free card are higher than when I check.

Anyway, interesting discussion. Curtains (& you?) clearly believe that betting is a major mistake here based on the % of the time I get re-raised. I just don’t see it happening that often with a drawy board and 7 to the flop so that's why I think it’s probably a small mistake at worst rather than a big one.