Re: 100/200 blind war
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i obviously dont disagree w/ your post as i realize you know much more than me; however could you please explain 1 "flaw" that seems to be in your logic?
If you bet; he needs to be bluffing >12% or so of the time for you to call; so if your bet/calling- he has a hand @ most 88% of the time correct? or would you be calling for metagame reasons? I never think about metagame b/c i dont play limit regularly; but i guess i shouldnt try n make these kinda folds?
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sure. the cost of calling and being completely wrong in that he will never ever bluff is the difference between your expectation if he bluffs 8% or 12% or whatever and the expectation if he never bluffs multiplied by the cost of the bet.
the cost of folding in this spot in a blind war given the previous action 4handed 1/2 is much larger than the money you save by folding. you will face many more shots taken at you as you will have labelled yourself a folder. doing this, even the poor players or the normally semi-passive ones will cause all of the players to put you to tougher decisions than you would normally face forcing you into potentially larger mistakes than the X%*1bb mistake you'd make by calling.
this is the way i think about it and i could definately be wrong, but in high limit poker, id choose to play against an easy to read person rather than a decent playing maniac any day of the week.
Barron
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