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I don't understand how Baye's Theorem comes into this. There are 3 doors. You choose 1 and have a probability of being right 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time it is in one of the other 2 doors. By switching you are actually choosing both of the other doors [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]; the one he shows you and the one he doesn't, so you win 2/3 of the time by switching and 1/3 by staying with the original door.

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excellent way of explaining it... it is wierd though to get there.

i guess also, you know nothing about your door. but there's a very good chance that door is still there because it's the winner. can't say the same about your original door...

o.k. your original explanation was much better.