NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:18240567 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Tuesday, December 13, 07:41:17 EDT 2005
Table Table 66807 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: duyennghiep ( $800 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $800 )
Seat 3: BANGO_BONGO ( $800 )
Seat 1: Poker5hark ( $800 )
Seat 6: ronniebass ( $800 )
Seat 4: TrOiCho99 ( $800 )
Seat 7: FKNHUGENUTZ ( $800 )
Seat 10: djonlieb ( $800 )
Seat 5: baykay ( $800 )
Seat 9: JAMESSLEMP1 ( $800 )
Trny:18240567 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh Qh ]
BANGO_BONGO calls [15].
TrOiCho99 folds.
baykay calls [15].
>You have options at Table 66816 Table!.
ronniebass folds.
FKNHUGENUTZ folds.
Hero calls [15].
>You have options at Table 66816 Table!.
JAMESSLEMP1 raises [30].
djonlieb folds.
Poker5hark folds.
duyennghiep calls [15].
BANGO_BONGO calls [15].
baykay calls [15].
Hero calls [15].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 3c, 9s ]
duyennghiep
duyennghiep checks.
BANGO_BONGO checks.
baykay checks.
Hero checks.
JAMESSLEMP1 bets [125].

duyennghiep folds.
BANGO_BONGO folds.
baykay folds.
Hero raises [350].
JAMESSLEMP1 calls [225].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
Hero is all-in [420]
JAMESSLEMP1 is all-In [420]
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
Hero shows [ Jh, Qh ] two pairs, nines and threes.
JAMESSLEMP1 shows [ 5d, 5s ] two pairs, nines and fives.
JAMESSLEMP1 wins 1700 chips from the main pot with two pairs, nines and fives.
Hero finished in tenth place.


Now my thought process here is that firstly I assume my jacks and queens are probably outs and I have a better than 50% chance of winning the hand against the bluff or weak pair that is likely raising after the field of checks, so I don't mind getting all in but prefer to try to pick it up with the check raise. On the turn, i'm still 45% or so to win assuming the same thing, and if i'm right, i'd _like_ to assume I have a bit better than a 5% chance that that weak hand will fold to my all in. Am I way off base with those assumptions or are they perhaps too marginal of edges to be pushing on? Or is my mistake thinking that a Party player will actually fold their anything better than king high or so. Or was I the donkey here and the guy picked me off on an obvious bluff? He sure called like he knew he had the best hand.