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Old 11-12-2005, 10:20 AM
triplc triplc is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 201
Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

First of all, awesome thread. If nothing else it has given us some real meat to chew on for a change. In fact, it brought me out of posting retirement (which some I'm sure will regret).

One point that no one (I apologize if I'm repeating anyone, as I've skimmed some parts of the thread) has addressed is the value those extra chips have in giving you the ability to push small edges effectively later in the tournament.

Let's say you fold a 55-45 in the first hand as the example states. Then you hit a bad run of cards, get picked off on a bluff, or some other scenario that drains your chips to 5000 and you are the short stack at the table.

Now, suppose this exact same situation presents itself not once, but twice (hey, if we're going to use hypotheticals, why not go crazy).

Now I'm 55% to win the first one to get back to 10k and 55% again to win the second and get to the 20k I could've been at on the first hand. But now, I only have a (.55 x .55) 29.75 chance of being where I would've been at 55% in the first hand.

Also, with the biggest stack, I am going to be more comfortable pushing small edges because my chance of being busted on a given hand is zero. I want to be the guy with 55 putting a decent sized stack to a decision for all of his chips.

I am not a multi tourney expert by any means, in fact I consider myself a fair mtt player (more experience in SnGs or ring games). And I think this article helped me discover why. I am a very tight player, especially early, and I am usually frustrated by getting bounced in the middle rounds as a favorite by a big stack who pushed either a small disadvantage or sometimes sucks out as a big underdog. Or, I am forced to push with marginal hands as my stack dwindles to lt 10XBB.

Finally, am I missing the point when Matt says keep track of the number of times you've doubled up in a tourney. Is he counting the times he got drained to 1k in chips and double to 2k, or is he counting the number of times he accumulated double the starting chips. That's a big difference.

OK...fire away.

CCC
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