MP2 calls, UTG 3bets and leads into you on the river:

[(3+3x)*.37 - 3*.63] + [(2+2y)*.935 - 2*.065] =
[(3+3*.8)*.37 - 3*.63] + [(2+2*.65)*.935 - 2*.065] =
[(5.4)*.37 - 1.89] + [(3.3)*.935 - .13] =
[.108] + [2.955] =
+ 3.063BB


Definitely possible.
Should our equity drop if UTG 3bets. Maybe.
Should the % MP calls the turn raise be increased seeing as he's loose. Probably.
Is MP more likely to call two cold on the river because of the deception of our turn raise. Maybe.
Do metagame considerations have an effect. Always.

All I'm pointing out is that the scale between right and wrong is a lot closer than your original equations make it out to be.

It's probably a lot worse than I figured when I made my original post but it's definitely closer than you make it out to be.