[Sykes]

The real question is:

If El D pushes, How often is he getting called by TP/QQ/KK/flush draw? Do these times outweigh the time that villian calls when Diablo is in bad shape (22/33/JJ/J2/J3)?


Let's do some stoving:

Against 2 pair or better
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.4366 % 26.44% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 73.5634 % 73.56% 00.00% { JJ, 33-22, J3s-J2s, 32s, J3o-J2o, 32o }

So about a 3 to 1 dog to 2 pair or better.

Against hands like TP(JT-AJ)/QQ/KK/flushdraw(eg. T9s)/straight flush draw (45s):

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 84.2967 % 84.21% 00.08% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 15.7033 % 15.62% 00.08% { KK-QQ, AJs, KJs, QJs, Td9d, 5d4d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

So, we're a 6 to 1 favorite against this range.


With everything:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.8926 % 60.84% 00.05% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 39.1074 % 39.06% 00.05% { KK-JJ, 33-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J3s-J2s, Td9d, 5d4d, 32s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, J3o-J2o, 32o }

We're 60/40.


So, all it boils down to is:

What will he do on the turn if we call here and check to him? What if we donk bet the turn?

How often will he call here with TP or an overpair? If it's often, I suggest push.

Honestly, just guessing here, I think he has a made hand but can't beat the J on board and is hoping that his min-raise takes it down right here.