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Old 12-12-2005, 03:13 PM
Sam T. Sam T. is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: St Louis, MO
Posts: 160
Default Re: small overpair $109

[ QUOTE ]
my original plan was to c/r a-i if he bet more like 700, but i thought the risk/reward wasn't there with the small bet. also, if he bets 700, he's getting about 1.9:1 and might talk himself into a bad call with AK. finally, i might shut out TT/JJ from the BB. (thoughts?)

after the little cbet, my plan was to call the flop and lead any non-A, non-6 turn and fold to a raise.

with the bb push, i'm getting 1.63:1, or need to win 38%.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t1205)
MP2 (t3678)
MP3 (t2665)
CO (t1280)
Button (t3600)
Hero (t4200)
BB (t3320)
UTG (t3450)
UTG+1 (t1100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t225, BB calls t150.

Flop: (t900) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t275</font>, Hero calls t275, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t3020 (All-In)</font>, MP2 folds, hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oooh, goodie, I'd forgotten about the BB.

Lessee, what might he have?
-Top pair, perhaps with a draw of some sort?
-Overpair to your overpair? (weakly played tens?)
-Pockets and a draw? (66 is about the only one that makes sense)
-Air that thinks, "Ah, they're both on overs!".
-Made str8?
-Set?

I think that (with the exception of the made str8) the odds in these are pretty evenly distributed, but someone else can fire up pokerstove.

With the odds, I think you're ahead enough of the time to call this. But I'm an optimist. (I hope you called. Today sucks, and I think "I folded" would send me to the liquor cabinet much too early for my own good.)
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