View Single Post
  #4  
Old 12-02-2005, 10:15 PM
I.Rowboat I.Rowboat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: S.F. Bay Area
Posts: 36
Default Re: 30/60 Stars Hand - Analysis Please

I agree with Schmitty's post that the decisions on the flop and turn appear to be close (river seems like an obvious fold, but we'll get to that.

PF: I hate playing drawing hands out of position in a raised pot, especially middling Broadway cards, which is what you have. You know that your call is going to make a bigger pot, but at this point I don't think you have enough other callers to call a raise from the SB -- I would like one more caller. You also don't state the position of the Villian1, which makes a difference. I think you can fold this...but you state the game is soft, so based on that read, I don't hate your call. But if I were in the hand, I wouldn't really like my hand unless I flopped two pair...

Flop: An interesting flop that hits just about every quality hand Villian1 would have opened with. Why are you leading??? I would check to the PF raiser and call. Your bet (and the expected raise from Villian1) will almost certainly eliminate Villian2, but I would prefer to check/call because I know I am drawing and I would prefer to keep other players in and (hopefully) see the turn on the cheap.

Turn: OK, picked up another leg of your BDFD, so you now have 8 clean outs for the str8 and 9 outs for second nut flush (with an obvious dupe of two of those flush/str8 outs), for 15 outs to improve to a complete hand that will probably be good. Plus you have TP with no kicker, which means you *may* have three more outs, although I sort of doubt it. Now might be a good time to C/R. Unless your table image is total rock, AK is *never* laying down in this spot...but you have many outs and a raise ain't so bad, and it puts Villian1 on notice that you have a hand. Of course, his three bet is bad news, but it creates what i think is the most interesting decision in the hand: do you cap when it gets back to you? If you simply call, I think you have to check/fold the river UI, as you are almost certainly beat. This would be the standard line, and against most opponents most of the time, it is the correct one. But some percentage of the time, I think you need to play some poker and cap here. If you improve, you will definitely get paid off on the river, and you seem to be drawing live to almost 1/3 of the deck, so capping is very attractive, as it also give you momentum going to the river.

River: Well...that sucks. As youplayed the hand, I think this is a check/fold card. Even with the C/R I advocated on the turn, this is an awful card unless your opponent puts you on exactly KQ or better. I don't think a bet on the river will get an AK or better to fold, and I don't think the Villian holds less than AK. If you bet out, he will fold AJc (which is the only weaker hand that you beat that allows him to 3 bet the turn), but he's calling with AK and raising with everything else. The pot has now grown very, very large and I don't think he folds a hand stronger than yours to a river bet a large enough percentage of the time to make it profitable on its own. Unless he's the sort of reckless player that will spew chips the whole way with something like 66 or A8c, I think this is an easy fold.
Reply With Quote