[lstream]

This is kind of like Beer's "tell my how I suck" thread. I have become convinced that I hold onto hands too long on 6'th and 7'th streets, due to over-emphasis on pot odds. I have been letting the fact that I am getting 6, 7, or 8 to one odds on the bet overcome my better judgement on letting go of hands.

Typical situation - I start with pocket or split aces. I get called in spite of pushing hard. Villain catches a pair on sixth. He leads out and I call. I get nothing on the river. He leads again - I try to decide if the pair is just a by product of chasing a flush or straight and often call against my better judgement. Pretty sure this is costing me a lot.

Another one - this happened last night and cost me a ton. Three way pot - one newbie and one solid guy. Solid guy has a board full of rags and is pushing hard. Newbie is chasing a flush. I hit an ace high straight on sixth and bet out. Everyone just calls. I lead on 7'th and get raised by newbie and re-raised by solid guy. I don't fold because the pot is huge by then (24BB or so), but it costs me two more big bets. Sure enough, solid guy has a totally hidden boat (he went runner runner), and newbie had the flush. I let the pot odds over rule my gut that said - "you are beat - get out"

On the other hand, there are lots of times where I have made calls against my better judgement and been paid off nicely.

So my question is - how do you guys know when to make these tough folds, and do you think you make them often enough? I am going to start a mid term exerecise to track my performance in these situations. It will essentially try to quantify "gut vs odds", and see where it nets out. I will measure:

1. What is my read on 6'th and 7'th - behind or ahead?
2. How many people in the hand?
3. How did I decide if I am ahead or behind and what warning signs did I miss? For example, is a non fish showing aggression that I cannot explain?
4. If I call the river, what is the result, categorized by whether I over-ride my own read or not. So if I win a hand where I call against my better judgement, what is the payoff?
5. I will then tally a score that compares what my results would have been if I had listened to my gut versus the results I actually achieved.

Would you guys watch for anything else? I am likely over-analyzing this whole thing, but I think the numbers will show that I have to go with my reads more often.