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Old 08-08-2005, 01:41 PM
fnord_too fnord_too is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Norfolk, VA
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Default Re: \"How to Missapply a Good Idea,\" or \"Wow, Good Job Applying That Id

The pre flop call is fine IMO, but post flop is pretty sketchy. I would not expect people to be making big lay downs, and I especially would not expect two people who like their hands to both make big laydowns. There is just no reason to push your chips in here. Your folding equity is not that high, as the first caller gets 2:1 on the call, and people really don't like folding.

Assume the best, you are up agaisnt two opponents who can fold. Maybe not the best, but assume that means they have some basic hand reading skill. You just pushed on a board that is pretty damn uncordinated and has only low cards. What could you have?

An overpair? Maybe TT/JJ does not reraise pre flop here, but QQ-AA almost certainly does.

A draw maybe, so this is a big semi-bluff. Well, that means 45s or 78s, not realy likely but any made hand is ahead here.

Two pair? Not bloody likely you are playing 96, 93, or 36 for a raise.

A set? What are you afraid of here if that is the case? The unlikely two pair may be affraid of getting counterfeited by a bigger pocket pair (which means you may have to dodge up to 7 outs followed by 10 outs), but a set really only has to worry about a bigger set, which means 4 outs if both opponents have overpairs. If someone has 45 or 78 and catches a straight (and you don't get a redraw) that would suck, but a set should not be too worried about that here. So if you think you are representing a set there are some holes in the story you are telling with your bets.

Top pair/second pair? Maybe, but pushing those here is pretty silly, unless you are doing it purely as a bluff (classic case of only a better hand calling you. The only better hand that may fold is 88.)

A bluff? Ill advised because you are not really representing anything too strong.

You should get looked up a lot by thinking players here, and unthinking players are not folding if they have any semblance of a hand.

There are some spots where, even if you know the other player is weak, you just don't have the time or the chips to steal the pot from them. This is one of those times. A set would spring to life later in the hand, but later in the hand the pot will be too big to move any made hand. (The time bit refers to sometimes there just are not enough streets left to set up a convincing play, which is not the case here.)

To summerize, you made two mistakes in judgement IMO:

The biggest is mis-assessing your opponents. Without reads, it is very dangerous to assume your opponents will fold here.

Your bet does not really represent anything. If the opponents are capable of looking beyond their own hands and start thinking about what you have, they are going to probably come to the conclusion that you have top pair or are bluffing (unless they are incredibly weak tight and prone to seeing monsters under the bed).
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