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Old 10-12-2005, 11:28 AM
Wintermute Wintermute is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 612
Default Re: PLO8 Preflop Desicion

I would fold for a few reasons, although it's close.

First, this hand isn't so strong that you can be sure you have enough equity to make the call +EV. Without running the numbers, I imagine an A234, A235, or an A2xx and AAxx in combination have you in pretty bad shape. I think it's tough to assign a range of hands to three opponents willing to get all-in preflop that doesn't contain these hands or something very close, which has you as less than 25% equity.

Second, there are no postflop decisions to be made. Your hand is one that benefits from postflop bettability... however, the other three players in the hand are shortstacked, so everyone will be committed no matter what cards come on the flop. So that strength of your hand is neutralized.

Third, with three players in the hand, it is somewhat more likely that many low cards are in hands and not the deck. This doesn't bode well for a board that fits your hand well.

Fourth, a call here is basically going to be a hope for some slight +EV at the expense of relatively high variance. I used to think that this exchange is always good, but I now understand that even the best bankrolled player should not trade indiscriminate amounts of variance for a tiny shred of EV. Why? Because we are not impervious to tilt, and we adjust our play in a negative way when we are losing. Has to do with gambler's utility.

Anyhow, for interest's sake, what were the hands that were turned up? (I presume you saw them since all players were all-in.)
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