Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn
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I'd be interested if you'd take another go at the problem with the following parameters:
1) Full table
2) Loose players
3) Five consecutive hands
4) Flop or turn the current nuts (AA preflop doesn't count as the nuts for this question)
5) Lose the hand in a showdown
6) Let's assume that OP slowplays flopped nuts (which makes it possible for some of the obscure runner-runners to come in)
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That's far less likely for two reasons. The first, as you point out, is doing it five hands in a row. You rarely flop the nuts. I don't know the exact figure, but it would reduce the probability by a factor of 1,000 or more. The other reason is you're getting called a lot more between the loose players and the slowplay assumption. Most of the time you flop the nuts you don't get to showdown unless someone has a chance of beating you.
Ballpark I'd say this reduces the odds by a factor of 10,000 to 100,000.
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