[ QUOTE ]
2) There's a program floating around that can simulate this based on your stats.
[/ QUOTE ]
Here is the thread to my simulation program - it is free and you will find the download link there.
ROI Simulator
Of course to use it you need to have some idea of your "true" 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finish frequency. A 20% ROI player will have about a 1 in 500 chance of losing money over 500 SNG's while a 10% ROI player has about a 1 in 16 chance of this happening and the "average" player who finishes in 1st,2nd and 3rd 10% of the time will be down money over 500 SNG's about 90% of the time.
rvg