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Old 08-11-2003, 04:59 PM
crashdavis crashdavis is offline
Junior Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 16
Default Re: pot odds and stuff

I agree with JayP, this is the red is due arguement.

The part that you are getting hung up about is

but if you made 7 out of the first ten you folded, then next 10 you call, you should make 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

The next 10 you call could be 10. This is one case where the cards (or hands played have no memory) like a roulette wheel (double 0) The probability of you hitting red is the exact same on every spin. Only through extremely long trial will you see that red is made 47% of the time.

Again one of the other key points is if you play that same hand over and over 1 million times you will make it 35% of the time. Each trial (a complete hand with a new shuffled deck) is independent of each other.

Let me try from a different angle if not clear yet

someone has to get the formula I don't have it at my finger tips ( and for the life of me I can't recreate it right now). But the formula remains the same hand to hand.

Hope that lead you down the right path


PS can someone post how 65% and 35% were derived.
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