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Old 08-11-2003, 04:49 PM
pudley4 pudley4 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Mpls, MN
Posts: 1,270
Default Re: pot odds and stuff

but if you made 7 out of the first ten you folded, then next 10 you call, you should make 0.

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But how do you know that the 7 you made count towards this upcoming 10? What if they counted toward the last 10 that you missed?

How do the cards know if you made the flush or missed it the last time?

A related question - if I flip a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, what odds will you give me that it comes up tails the next toss? Shouldn't it come up tails 10 times in a row to "balance out" the 10 heads? But wait, how does the coin know that you are doing exactly 20 trials? What if you were only doing 10 trials? What if you are doing 1 million trials - then the coin has 999,990 trials left to "balance out"?

The answer is: the cards don't know. If you are supposed to make 3.5 out of 10, you'll make 3.5 out of 10 in the long run. With any randomly occuring event (such as the turn of a card, or the throw of a die), there will always be "patterns" if you look at past results. However, there is no way to use these past results to predict future events.
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