Thread: pot odds and stuff View Single Post
#3
08-11-2003, 01:18 PM
 ccwhoelse? Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: u rook rike charlie brown Posts: 371
Re: pot odds and stuff

maybe i should reword it.

in any player's lifetime, the more hands he plays, he should get closer to making a flush 35% when he flopped a four flush.

so if you fold when you had a four flush cause you didn't get the pot odds and the flush comes you've just made a flush that would contribute to your 35% during your lifetime. so if you played let's say 10,000 hands your whole life and flopped a four flush each time. you should make 3,500 flushes. if you fold your first 1000 four-flushes because you are not getting the proper odds, and then 500 of them become flushes, you are now only going to be able to make 3,000 flushes out of the next 9,000 hands. so let's say during last 9,000 hands you get the effective pot odds to call based on your 1.86 to 1 calculation.
but since you've already made 500 flushes out of your original 3,500, which you folded, your chances of making the flush in the next 9,000 has gone down to 3,000 out of 9,000 or 33%. which would be a 2.03 to 1 shot rather than a 1.86 to 1.

does that make any sense?
hopefully i got my point across.

so, the more four-flushes you fold that turn into flushes,
the slightly better odds you need the next time around to draw to one?