Hi there Nightwish,
Long time no see. What in the world does the villain have on the river that doesn't beat me now? He would have raised preflop with any big pair, so he doesn't have that. He rams and jams with a made flush on the flop, except perhaps the nuts. If not he probably jams the turn with a made flush. He does overplay his hands at times. For example, he raises and calls a 3-bet with unimproved AA on the river vs a set that filled.
Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed)
converter
Preflop: Garland is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.
Flop: (10.66 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.
Turn: (9.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.
River: (12.83 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO calls.
Final Pot: 18.83 BB
Results below:
MP2 has 8h 8d (full house, eights full of sevens).
CO has Ac Ah (two pair, aces and sevens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 18.83 BB.
But most of the time he simply gets married to hands and calls down, especially on scary boards such as this.
It's pretty transparent he has a 9 and thought he out-turned me. He has to be nuts to bet with a flush into a potential full house on the chance I have a 9.
So my line of thinking, 95% of the time he shows me a 9. And I suppose he could have a flush probably 5% of the time, due to the play and the improbability due to my own two cards...not enough odds to call the river (1 in 11.5) and even if he does have a flush, some of the times he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I still lose. A bet saved is a bet earned here, I think.
Garland