[Harv72b]

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I'm cold calling this b/c of the semi tight mp player. I call him semi tight b/c even though his stats are 10/5, the sample size really isn't large enough for me to say he's really tight. Add the fact that he's calling 2 cold and I just don't think hes a true 10/5 type of guy. I think he's prolly more like 20/6 or so.

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If your read is based on such a small sample size, you probably should have included that information in the initial post (or else not assigned a read to this player). The fact remains, though, that A9s is not a good hand to be coldcalling with 3rd in--even with the PFR being so LAG and the coldcaller being borderline at best, this is a hand where you are probably going to have to improve and/or "outplay" your opponents postflop in order to win a pot. If the blinds are both loose and you expect them to call as well, it becomes a little closer, but as is it's just a bad call to be making.

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I'd rather not 3 bet here b/c 1) I already have positoin 2) I dont know if my hand is best 3) I can raise a favorable flops vs getting it checked to me in a HUGE pot where I may or may not have hit the flop.

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With your position on the field as it is, betting the flop in a 3-way pot that went three bets preflop vs. raising the expected bet from the LAG in a 3-way pot that went 2 bets preflop will result in the exact same pot size and pot odds offered to your opponents.

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Why are you narrowing his range down to AcJ/Q. He could make this call w/any AJ or AQ b/c he's got a gutshot plus an A out plus the fact that A high might be good. He could also have A9 and other Ax b/c of the weakness shown he might believe his A high is the best hand. We're not too concered about the other Ax b/c we already beat them but I think the bigger question is what hands do you think he calls 2 cold and then checks both the flop and turn with?

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I put him on that range of hands based on the 10/5 number you gave in the OP. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] And if he's calling a turn bet with a gutshot, getting only 4.5:1, then GB him...but I think you're really hoping for the best by believing he holds those hands. QJs is also a possibility given your belief that he's more like 20/6, but you beat that hand anyway and it probably won't call a river bet.

As far as what he calls 2 cold with preflop, checks the flop with, and check/calls the turn with after it's checked around...basically any small to medium pocket pair, a turned OESD, or a turned 4-flush. Maybe he folds a pocket pair to another bet on the river, maybe not...he's getting better pot odds on the river than he did on the turn, and I think if he goes to the river with an underpair, he'll probably call 1 more bet to see a showdown. Assuming he's holding the nut flush draw & no pair, then it's got to be AQ or AJ, or else you already have the pot won or at least chopped. As above, if he turned an OESD, you're already good and he'll never call the river bet so there's no value whatsoever in it.

So, really, betting the river is only likely to win you any chips if he has exactly AQ or AJ and folds, or he decides to give up on his small PP after calling the turn bet getting basically no pot odds. I don't think he folds those pockets near often enough to make this a +EV bet, so my belief is that you're hoping he's got AQ/AJ and folds to your river bet often enough to make up for all the times he calls it with a better hand. I don't think that happens.

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Assuming he will never fold a pair but will always fold A high we have

12 combos of AQ, 12 of AJ, 9 of A9 but since we only win half the pot when we check, discount that to 4.5 We have a total of 28.5 hands that we win more $ when betting than checking.

We also have 6 cobos of each pair giving us 36 total combos of pair hands. So we lose when betting 36 times vs checking. Since the pot is 5.5 sbs, I think betting might be the way to go. As an asside I feel that I can discount some of the pairs even more b/c he would prolly be bettint the turn w/them but I don't feel its too important in the analysis here.

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By your own reasoning, you are losing an extra bet more often than you win one. And I don't think that he's betting those underpairs on the turn very often at all, especially if he chose not to bet with one on the T-high, rainbow flop. The K represents another overcard and he's got another player (you) yet to act behind him--a lot of players will just check again with a hand like 44, and of those who then call a bet there, many will call another on the river.

Like I said (and you seem to agree with), I think if you get called on the turn, the only hands he'll fold with any frequency on the river are busted draws (most of which you beat anyway). I just don't see the value in betting the river, especially not as a relatively frequent play.