[elitegimp]

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I'm still stuck on the probability of the avg # per suit being dealt in the first 20 cards and how that has no bearing when calculating unseen cards.

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Just because you _expect_ 6 spades to be dealt among your opponents on average does not mean that 6 spades will be dealt out every time. Also, the chance of you turning a spade changes depending on how many spades are out -- so you have to look at the interaction between how often a certain number of spades are dealt to your opponents and how likely you are to hit your flush given that however many spades are left in the deck.

I'm trying to clear things up, but I have a feeling I'm just adding to the confusion. Sorry!