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Old 12-22-2005, 03:11 AM
7stud 7stud is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 143
Default Re: pot odds and raising on the turn

Hi,

I think you have a couple of errors in your reasoning.

1)
[ QUOTE ]
Now it's to me with 12 small bets in the pot.

I think to myself that the odds of making a flush draw, Flop to River, are ~2:1 and the pot is giving me 12:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are comparing apples to oranges there. It’s a little better than 2:1 to make your flush by the river. However, the current pot odds and the current call only apply to the next card, and it’s 4:1 to make your flush on the next card.

If the odds you are looking at are the odds of making your hand by the river, then you have to look at the total amount of money you will be required to put in the pot by the river. There are 12 small bets in the pot now, but if you anticipate your opponents will put in 2 big bets on the turn, then you will also have to put in a big bet on the turn to see the river. That means for 1 small bet now and 1 big bet on the turn, you will have a chance to win 12 small bets + 2 big bets(not taking into account any river bets you may collect). So, you will have to put in a total of 3 small bets to win 16 small bets to see the river, which means the pot is only offering you 5:1. Since it was 2:1 to make your flush by the river, you should still call.

2)[ QUOTE ]
I think to myself that the odds of making a flush draw, Flop to River, are ~2:1 and the pot is giving me 12:1. Then I think if I raise here, I'm still getting 6:1 pot odds, way better than the odds of hitting my flush. I raise and all three other players call.

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If your raise alone is getting better odds than your odds of making the hand, then you should raise. For example, if there are 7 opponents and you anticipate that 5 of them will call your raise and it’s 4:1 odds against making your hand, then your raise will be matched by 5 calls, or in other words, you will be getting 5:1 on your raise. Since it’s only 4:1 against making your hand and you're getting paid 5:1 on your raise alone, you should raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn comes 3s. It's big bet time now. First player bets and the other two call. I'm looking at 4:1 to hit my flush on the River. A call will give me 11:1 pot odds. I should call, no brainer right?

I start thinking that a raise here will give me 5.5:1 pot odds, still better than my 4:1 drawing odds. Should I call or should I raise?

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The maximum odds you could anticipate getting on your raise was 3:1(if all your opponents called), and since it was 4:1 against making your hand, your raise had a negative expected value. In other words, you are only getting paid 3:1 on the extra money you put in the pot.
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