The Thought Process
Hey all,
I don't think that most posters who replied truly understand the implications of stack depth, image, and hand reading here and how those things affect the river play, so here is a little more about that.
The stacks here are 900 times the sum of the blinds. If you are a 1/2 player, imagine playing with $2,700 stacks. If you are a 5/10 player, imagine playing with $13,500 stacks. I'd guess that those numbers are greater than some players' entire bankrolls for those limits...
Now, let's look at the hand, street by street. When the flop comes rainbow rags, Hero's bet signals overpair. When UTG flat-calls, it signals set or that he doesn't believe that Hero has an overpair. When the K comes on the turn, Hero will almost always check a hand other than a set. So, when Hero bets, it signals KK. It is clear that UTG is thinking this as well, as he doesn't raise the turn, and he doesn't lead the river to try to get value out of an AK/AA that bet the turn and would check the river. It is also clear at this point that UTG has a set. So, at this point, both players know what the other is holding.
Now, on the river, I guarantee the guy with 99 isn't thinking, "Awesome, I have a boat, I want to get all-in." He knows that the 4 changes nothing. He is still behind KK. Any river call that he makes is going to be a crying call. 1/2 players, would you make a crying call for $600? 5/10 players, would you make a crying call for $3000? If you are a winning player, I highly doubt it. So, why assume that UTG would gladly call $2000 here with his boat? And, the thought of his check-raising 99/22 here as anything other than a bluff is absolutely ridiculous. Is a tight, aggressive player going to call thousands of dollars here with an overpair or AK (the ONLY things that UTG can beat)?
At the same time, look at the position that Hero is in. Yes, he has the second nuts. But, just as UTG rightfully fears KK, Hero should rightfully fear 44. And here is the crucial thing: because the situation is SO transparent to both parties, UTG should be able to bluff check-raise the correct percentage of the time. If he check-raises the pot 1/12 of the time that he has 99/22 (all he has to do is look at the minute hand of his watch, and if it's between the 12 and 1, raise it up), Hero is faced with a break-even decision of whether to call the raise or fold (assuming that UTG would also check-raise the pot with 44).
So, here is the math. Assuming that Hero checks behind, he averages $2280 on the hand (he will win the pot 6/7 of the time). Now, let's assume that he bets $1500 on the river. He wins $4160 every time that he is called, $2660 every time that is he is not, and loses $1500 3/14 of the time (this is how often he will be check-raised). If UTG is going to call less than 34.1% of the time, then Hero is better off checking the river. So, the moral is that, against a good player who will check-raise bluff some percentage of the time and who will not pay off a significant bet here, you check the river. It isn't even necessarily important that UTG bluff the "correct" percentage of the time, because I don't think one can guess whether UTG will bluff too often or not often enough and thus cannot take advantage of his incorrect frequency.
But, as we established, it is probable that Hero will be called here. So, he bets. But, hopefully people can see that, against a very skilled opponent, you check the river here. And, even against an unskilled opponent, you need to bet an amount that he is going to call, or betting is a mistake. It is better, IMO, to undershoot than overshoot, which is why I think that somewhere around $1000 is the best amount.
So, I would urge players in these spots not to be blinded by their own hand or use logic such as "I have the second nuts. If I go broke, that's just how it goes." That is NOT how one plays deep stack poker.
Hope this helps.
ML4L
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