[SumZero]

I think IPlay should be pushing with just less than 50% of hands. There will be dead money in the pot from the small blind and Raptor will fold 90+% of hands and BB will call 90+% of hands. So most of the time it is putting in 945 to win 2040. So I think he can make that play on top 50% of hands (say any pair, any ace, any king, q5+, J7+, t8+).

For Raptor's decision, assume BB will fold any cards for simplicity. Now Raptor has to call 1130 more to win 2860. His equity against this range is 63.232%.

Call:
So we have call and win: 4570, 1925, 2860, 645 : ICM says $298.2607
Call and lose and we have: $0.

63.232*298.2607 = $188.60

But maybe BB calls with good hands (QQ+,AK?) so this might change our EV slightly (cut down slightly on our EV most likely).

Fold:
a) If BB folds we have: 4570, 3655, 1130, 645 : ICM says $186.11

b) If BB calls and wins we have: 4570, 2260, 1130, 2040 : ICM says $150.60

c) If BB calls and loses we have: 5470, 4300, 1130 : ICM says $251.93

Most likely we'll see something like a:b:c::1:4:5. So our fold prediction is .1*186.11+.4*150.60+.5*251.93 which is $204.82 EV.

So if you buy that IPlay should push with about top 50% of hands then we should fold, and it isn't close.

Even if it was a:b:c::6:2:2 (I.e., a very weak-tight bb) it would be $192.17 EV fold.