[WillyTrailer]

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I'm almost certain that he'll bet the turn with any hand he'll calll the flop with if I check here...

He may 3 bet a J, but given my image, he'll probably just call there too. At any rate, there's no way he's 3 betting unless I'm way behind.

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I think you are contradicting yourself. If only three bets when you are way behind, why wouldn't he three bet a jack? You are way behind a jack, so I don't see how he couldn't.

You said he would call flop with any queen or jack, so you have to credit that as a possibility. If you are three bet, a fold is likely in order. If you lead and are raised though, is that any different? I lead, because I think I'll find out if I'm beat for one less bet.

Also, if he wouldn't raise with a queen on that flop, he must be a bit passive unless he thinks your PF three bet was BS. Check raises don't work against passive players. And when I raise in position and SB three bets me, unless there image is maniacal I give them credit for having a hand.

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Right, I shoud have been a bit more clear. Villain is somewhat aggressive, but really fears me. Not enough to lay down top pair after I 3 bet preflop, but enough to not raise me with top pair on or after the flop. However, if I check, I think he'll think I missed and bet any pair.

He's also too weak of a player to lay down top pair to a turn check-raise and i'm guessing he'd even see the river and likely pay off with medium PP's if and A or a K doesn't hit the river.

As far as getting three bet is concerned, I can be more specific. I don't think he'll 3-bet a turn check-raise wtih out AJ or QJ and with AJ it's questionable as to whethere or not he'd raise. So I'm definitely folding if he 3 bets me.

I'll go ahead and put the analysis that I should have made at the table in here now.
In the event that I c/r the turn, I lose three BB when he has KJ. I lose 2 or 3 BB when he has AJ or QJ. I win 3 BB when he has AQ, KQ. I win 1, 2 or 3 when he has a PP, with a tendancy towards 2 or 3.

In the event that I bet I should fold to a raise so I just lose 1 bb when I'm raised and 2 if he waits 'til the river to raise me. It's much more likely that he'll raise me with three jacks as opposed to him 3-betting me if I had c/r'd. I win 2 bets when he just has a Q and likely 2 but maybe one when he has a mid PP.

I plugged the following range into poker stove {TT-77,AQs-AJs,KTs+,QJs,AQo-AJo,KJo+,QJo} and on the turn I still have almost 70% equity against this range.

I'm fairly confident that Villain bets all of these hands if I check too, because he's seen me show lots of preflop strength and then fold before the showdown many times but that's because the pots are usually 5-7 handed which makes folding much more frequent.

Thanks for making me think about all of this. Sometimes I just ride on intuition and don't analyze in full detail. While tons of experience does wonders for one's intuition I still need to keep it honest with in depth analysis since we all know that our intuition can be misleading/wrong sometimes.

I thought it was close at first, but now it seems pretty clear that a c/r is a good idea since it's so likely that I'm ahead and that I'll get paid off.

Poker is fun,
-WT