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Old 12-29-2005, 06:09 PM
Kyriefurro Kyriefurro is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 70
Default Re: Eliminating Post-Flop

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You have 15 outs if villain has any part of this board, and all of your outs are probably good. So your outs plus FE make this move +EV.

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This ignores the fact that when you get called, it's not by a villian with any part of the board - after a call of the PFR, with this board, you can put a calling villain on a set most of the time - all your outs aren't good, and even if you hit on the turn, a set has redraws against any heart.

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This is read dependent of course. However at NL25, most opponents do NOT even consider the fact that you raised when they decide if they're going to call or not. They see JTs and figure it can make a straight AND a flush and that they should therefore call. There are an aweful lot of hands here that the average NL25er would call with PF that hero is still ahead of. You'd be surprised how many times villain will call hero's push with a smaller flush draw or even 89o.

I stand by my original statement. I think that hero's outs combined with his fold equity make this move +EV. That being said I don't think the EV is very large. And I definately think that letting the hand play out, instead of pushing on this flop has a much larger EV than the way hero played this.

As Poboy so elegantly put it, hero's play makes him the least when he's ahead and costs him the most when he looses.
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