[Buzz]

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What do you feel about this raise? what is your range that you put everyone on? Given this range, what is your line of play? Bet out on the turn? fold somewhere?

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Ben - I’m going to change the flop a little bit to
T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and leave everything else the same.

I get tired of answering sensibly and then seeing results where Hero would do best by playing like a maniac. I hope this is not another post where your opponents are all betting with crap and then playing like buffoons.

If not, I’d guess that SB is check-raising with a decent looking high hand. I think SB’s check-raise on the turn represents something like
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Y.
If SB actually has that hand, SB wants to
• (1) knock out anyone with the king flush draw (Hero, as it turns out),
• (2) collect more when the board pairs on the river, and
• (3) also charge the low draws.
A difficulty for Hero is if SB does have the hand he’s representing with the check-raise, then if the board pairs tens and Hero makes a full house, Hero will be paying off to a better full house.

SB might not actually have a set of queens. Instead SB may just have the nut-spade draw plus straight and low possibilities - or maybe a hand similar to Hero’s. Perhaps the original better has the set. But in any event, I think SB probably has a decent high hand and if it doesn’t end up beating Hero at the showdown, it almost surely at least contains some of Hero’s outs, thus making it less probable for Hero to end up a winner.

Hero’s check-re-raise might possibly knock out both players behind him if (amazingly) neither of them has A3XY. However, I think at least one of the players behind Hero has A3XY and will call Hero’s bet. Assuming at least one of the players behind Hero does have A3XY, I think roughly two hands out of five probably both of them will have it and will call while the other three hands out of five only one of them will have it and will call.

However, if Hero makes it $60, I don’t see anyone chasing with (1) a non-nut low draw, (2) a non-nut spade draw or (3) a poor full house draw (like a set of sixes or deuces). Is that what Hero wants?

I have no idea if SB or one of the players behind Hero has the nut flush draw or not. I think most of the players in this game are probably going to see the flop with the suited ace of spades. There’s about one chance in three one of them was dealt the suited ace of spades, and if so, will be one of the players seeing the river with Hero. Hard to say exactly who might have the suited ace of spades if indeed any opponent does have it. Trouble is, if the board does flush on the river, Hero will be paying off with his 2nd nut flush about one third of the time (and winning the other two thirds of the time, but mostly for only half the pot).

Whoever has what, I’ll agree Hero has a decent draw after the turn and should not be intimidated by the double bet. But I’d feel a whole lot better about Hero’s chances without the check-raise by SB. Hero could get easily get caught with the second best high hand on the river.

If SB had not already check-raised, a check-raise from Hero might not be a bad play. However, the way things stand, I don’t think Hero’s check-re-raise will knock out the nut spade flush draw. Nor will it knock out somebody (presumably SB) who has a set of queens. It will only knock out opponents Hero should rather see chasing on the river.

Putting it all together, Hero probably does better against decent opponents by limping on the third betting round.

Just my opinion.

I've played in that $5/$10 kill game at the Mirage, but it's been a while and never in the morning. I currently like the Orleans better for Omaha-8 when I (occasionally) get to Las Vegas.

Buzz