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Old 12-12-2005, 12:02 PM
tewall tewall is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: midwest
Posts: 1,206
Default Re: Bet how much on flop?

Thanks, I'll take a look.

I've been thinking about it to me more, and it seems to me that the half-pot bet is better if the other guy has a similar stack to yours, but all in is better if he has a larger stack (but not so large that losing 600 doesn't hurt, in which case 150 is probably better).

I did the math making the assumptions that all-in would win 85% of the time, and 150 60% of the time. I don't know how reasonable those numbers are. That's the tought part of the analysis, coming up with reasonable guesses as to how likely the opponent is to fold.

Another factor would be how many players are left. The fewer players there are, the more you stand to gain when the opponent folds, and the mathematics shifts more towards pushing.
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